Modelling Risks for Physical Security Assets Development and Operation in High-Value Retailer Projects in the UAE

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The British University in Dubai (BUiD)
As the drive towards efficiency and effectiveness in infrastructure spending intensifies, the topic of WLCC (Whole Lifecycle Costing) has taken added importance, aligned with the general mandate of providing the best value for money. The domain of spending on PSA (Physical Security Assets) thereby requires assessment not just regarding the cost but also in various dimensions of risk management, to fulfill the needs and requirements of the users. In addition to that, all elements connected with the PSA need to be analyzed and assessed with a holistic cost-benefit analysis framework. The research aims at undertaking a stochastic analysis of the whole ambit of costs associated with PSA (physical security assets) from feasibility to disposal, with the aim of generating output regarding economic and non-economic indicators. This exercise would generate thus a model which can be deployed by both the private and the public sectors for making better decisions regarding PSA investments, and obtaining best value. Data collection has been done through a survey and other sources, with probabilistic distributions derived for the relevant WLCC cost centers along with validation of the same through statistical tools. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to provide the users with pre-defined parameters. Various sensitivity analysis measures have been incorporated to gauge the variability through changes to crucial inputs. The proposed WLCC model would enable the users to assess the factual overall running costs of investment in PSA, along with risk management parameters, thereby facilitating investment policy implementation. As opposed to deterministic forecasts, it would enable the users to quantify the associated risks with a relative level of certainty. It would, therefore, contribute towards the more efficient use of budgets, equipping the users with statistical results to confidently make the judgment calls regarding various options of investment in PSA.
modelling risks, physical security assets, high-value retailer projects, United Arab Emirates (UAE)